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Growing concerns have emerged over the potential of warfare between East African neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational language has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has sparked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people died.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "rectified tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

Amid persistent threats from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a approach of retaking former lands.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that attempts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Border

So far, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, state television has displayed graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The director of staff section of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British military before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the ruler ended this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle followed, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by the population in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Although this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a statement that the war was concluded – a decision that gained the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

But diplomatic connections have since broken down once more.